Black Swan events cannot be predicted. Who could have predicted that Lending Club would do something wrong that caused the Founder CEO to leave and the stock to tank? We cannot plan for hurricanes, tsunamis and other extreme weather – we just put that in the Force Majeure clause. Yet big companies have to plan for these types of eventualities and consumers insure against them – making the subject important for the Global 2000 and mission critical for Insurance companies. Insurance companies do have to predict what has historically been called unpredictable. Having come off a lousy ski season, I am more inclined to believe in global warming and therefore an increase in extreme weather related risk.
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